How the prediction works
The Boston Athletic Association (BAA) publishes a qualifying standard for each age group and gender. Run at or under that time on a certified course and you may apply. But in most recent years more people apply than the field allows, so the BAA accepts the fastest applicants and announces a cutoff afterward: the extra margin under the standard that you actually needed.
This tool estimates the next cutoff from the recent trend and publicly available projections, then compares it to your buffer to give rough entry odds. It also does something the official registration page does not: it replays your buffer against every cutoff since 2014, adjusting for the fact that the standards were 5 minutes slower for runners under 60 before the 2026 race. That history is the most honest answer to "is my buffer enough", because it is built from what actually happened rather than a single forecast.
Cutoff history
How far under the standard you needed to be to get accepted, by race year:
| Race year | Cutoff under standard | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4:34 | standards tightened 5 min (under 60) |
| 2025 | 6:51 | |
| 2024 | 5:29 | |
| 2023 | none | all qualifiers accepted |
| 2022 | none | all qualifiers accepted |
| 2021 | 7:47 | field cut to 20,000 (COVID-19) |
| 2020 | 1:39 | standards tightened 5 min |
| 2019 | 4:52 | |
| 2018 | 3:23 | |
| 2017 | 2:09 | |
| 2016 | 2:28 | |
| 2015 | 1:02 | |
| 2014 | 1:38 |
2026 and 2027 qualifying standards
Maximum finish time to meet the standard. Women's times also apply to non-binary athletes.
| Age group | Men | Women / Non-binary |
|---|---|---|
| 18-34 | 2:55:00 | 3:25:00 |
| 35-39 | 3:00:00 | 3:30:00 |
| 40-44 | 3:05:00 | 3:35:00 |
| 45-49 | 3:15:00 | 3:45:00 |
| 50-54 | 3:20:00 | 3:50:00 |
| 55-59 | 3:30:00 | 4:00:00 |
| 60-64 | 3:50:00 | 4:20:00 |
| 65-69 | 4:05:00 | 4:35:00 |
| 70-74 | 4:20:00 | 4:50:00 |
| 75-79 | 4:35:00 | 5:05:00 |
| 80+ | 4:50:00 | 5:20:00 |
Guides and articles
Deeper reading on cutoffs, standards and strategy. New articles publish daily on the blog.
- Boston 2027 cutoff prediction
- 2027 qualifying times by age
- How much buffer you need for 2027
- What the cutoff is and how it is set
- Why a BQ does not guarantee entry
- The 2027 downhill course adjustment
- Boston 2026 cutoff, explained
- What "BQ minus 5" means
Frequently asked questions
Does a Boston qualifying time guarantee entry?
No. Meeting the standard only earns the chance to submit an application. When more qualifiers apply than there are spots, the fastest applicants in each age and gender group are accepted and a cutoff trims the rest.
What is the cutoff time?
The cutoff is how many minutes and seconds faster than your standard you actually had to run to be accepted. For the 2026 race it was 4:34. It changes every cycle based on how many fast runners apply.
What cutoff is predicted for 2027?
This tool uses a working estimate of about 5:15 with a wide range, based on the recent trend and published projections. It is an estimate, not an official number, and is updated each registration cycle.
Does the downhill course adjustment affect my buffer?
For the 2027 race the BAA introduced an adjustment for qualifying races with a large net elevation drop, which can reduce your effective buffer. This tool does not yet model that adjustment, so if you qualified on a steep downhill course treat your odds here as optimistic.
How accurate is this?
The buffer and the standards are exact. The predicted cutoff and the odds are estimates and will not match the official result. The year-by-year history is the most reliable guide because it is built from cutoffs that actually happened.